If Joe Biden performs at Obama 2012 ranges as a substitute of Clinton 2016 with Western Pennsylvania Democrats, he’ll flip the state.

Hillary Clinton had the best performance of any Democratic presidential candidate since 1992 in Allegheny County, which accommodates Pittsburgh, however the remainder of the Appalachian/Western a part of the state was a complete massacre for her.

Clinton Carried out Worse Than Obama In 20 Western Pennsylvania Counties

Donald Trump gained Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes in 2016. In 17 of 20 Western Pennsylvania counties listed beneath, Clinton misplaced a minimal of 1,100 Democratic votes. In three different counties (Mifflin, Huntington, and Clarion), she misplaced lower than 1,000 votes. Western PA counties the place Clinton equaled or exceeded Obama’s vote complete like Allegheny and Butler weren’t included on this evaluation.

The losses in 4 counties exceeded 4,000 votes every (Beaver, Fayette, Mercer, and Washington).

Here’s a chart of the modifications within the Democratic complete vote in Western PA from 2012 to 2016:

Western PA County Democratic vote change

There Are Sufficient Democratic Votes In Western PA/Appalachia To Flip The State To Joe Biden

Trump gained Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes, however the Democratic vote complete in these twenty counties decreased 51,810 votes between 2012 and 2016. There are sufficient votes in Western Pennsylvania to flip the state to Joe Biden even when Trump acquired his manner and lowered turnout within the state to 2016 ranges.

The Biden marketing campaign doesn’t must win these counties. Trump was in a position to win many of those counties with 65%-80% of the vote. If Democrats are mobilized to Obama ranges in these pink counties, Biden will 30%-40% of the vote. A change in vote share of 5%-10% would equal hundreds of misplaced votes for Trump in rural Pennsylvania stronghold.

Joe Biden doesn’t want new Democratic voters. His marketing campaign solely has to deliver 2012 Democratic voters again into his column.

Even If Trump Efficiently Will get Ballots Arriving After November 3 Tossed Out, Biden Might Nonetheless Win Pennsylvania

Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) said in Sunday that there are Biden signs in places in Pennsylvania where there were not Hillary Clinton signs in 2016. I can verify that this the case. Biden’s help in Western Pennsylvania seems to be larger than Hillary Clinton’s was, which is the rationale why Trump held a sequence of occasions in Western Pennsylvania on Saturday.

As he does nationally, Joe Biden additionally has a number of paths to victory in Pennsylvania.

The Biden marketing campaign has been engaged on getting Democratic voters energized in Western Pennsylvania for a yr. The elevated Biden indicators are a product of the marketing campaign’s operation on the bottom the place they’ve been rather more lively in working with native events than the Clinton marketing campaign was in 2016.

Whereas the nationwide media is concentrated on Philadelphia and the suburbs, Biden has a stealth path to victory in Pennsylvania that runs proper by the guts of Trump’s 2016 help.

If Obama voters come again to Biden, Pennsylvania will flip blue.

For extra dialogue about this story be part of our Rachel Maddow and MSNBC group.

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View the information that was used to compile this evaluation

County

2012

2016

(-) Vote Change

Potential Vote

Armstrong 9045 7178 1867 51810
Beaver 37055 32531 4524 Trump Margin
Blair 16272 13958 2314 44292
Bedford 4788 3645 1143
Cambria 24,249 18887 5362
Clearfield 11121 8200 2921
Elk 5463 3853 1610
Jefferson 4787 3650 1137
Fayette 21971 17946 4025
Indiana 14473 11528 2945
Somerset 9434 7376 2098
Westmoreland 63772 59969 3803
Venango 7945 6309 1636
Clarion 5056 4273 783
Greene 5852 4482 1370
Washington 40345 36322 4023
Mifflin 4273 3877 396
Huntington 5409 4559 850
Mercer 24232 18733 5499
Lawrence 17513 14009 3504

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